EVOLUTION UTAH
Sen. Orrin Hatch:
What Does His Future Hold?
Jaren Wood
It was the fall of 1976. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, was a practicing attorney, and had lived in Utah for seven years since moving from Pittsburgh where he attended law school. Hatch, never having had any prior political experience in Utah, entered the Utah Senate race against the three-term incumbent Democratic candidate Frank Moss.
What happened next was stunning, as Hatch went on to win 54 percent of the votes, and kicked off a senate career longer than any Utah senator has had in the state’s history.
Now nearing the end of 2017, Hatch is in his seventh term, entering his forty-second year as a United States senator. He is working with his eighth U.S. President since arriving in Washington, as well as hundreds of other leaders on both sides of the aisle. The real question: will 2018 be his last year?
The Senator's Indecision
In 2012, prior to beginning his seventh term, Hatch acknowledged that, if he won, it would be his last term before retiring. Dave Hanson, Hatch’s campaign manager, put that message out clear in “a definitive way so that people would understand” he wouldn’t run again. Fast forward nearly six years later, and that message is murky.
In recent months, speculation has been running rampant on the future of the senate seat. Hatch’s team has insisted that he has not made a decision on his future in the senate. Rumors began back in Nov. 2016, following the elections, when Hatch was asked about his future.
“I’ve got a lot of people asking me to (run)… You know I had said that this would be my last term, but the circumstances have greatly changed so I’ll have to look at it,” he said.
Months later, on Aug. 24, 2017, Hatch was again asked about his future. He responded with, “Right now, I intend to run again. But who knows? By the end of the year, I’ll make that determination.”
As recently as Dec. 1, Hatch’s spokesman said the senator hadn’t decided yet whether to retire at the end of the term. The consistent answer has always been, “he’ll make a decision by the end of the year.”
Why would he change his Mind?
According to Hatch’s communications director, Matt Whitlock, the circumstances have “changed dramatically.” Part of that has to do with the unforeseen outcome of a Donald Trump presidency.
“With a Republican president, the opportunity for a senator with Hatch’s seniority and clout to deliver results for Utah grew tremendously,” Whitlock said. “A large number of Utahns have petitioned him to reconsider his previous statements and run again.”
As recently as Dec. 4, President Trump was in Salt Lake City, meeting with Sen. Hatch, and Whitlock spoke on how important Hatch’s relationship with the president is.
“Sen. Hatch has sought to maintain a strong relationship with the President because it’s best for his constituents to have the President’s ear,” Whitlock said. “While others have publicly criticized the President on a number of occasions, Hatch has taken any concerns or complaints directly to him, which (Trump) has appreciated.”
He added, “Having a strong relationship with Pres. Trump has allowed Sen. Hatch to do big things for Utah.”
Trump was asked by reporters while visiting in Utah if he was encouraging Hatch to run again for reelection, to which Trump responded, “Yes.” When speaking to reporters shortly after, Trump said he hopes the senator will “continue to serve your state and your country in the Senate for a long time to come”.
Whitlock also mentioned how important it is for the Republican Senate to have a veteran senator like Hatch who has experience “navigating the waters” of Washington.
“Washington is more broken and dysfunctional than ever, and many have asked him (Hatch) to stick around to help Congress weather the storm,” Whitlock said.
Sen. Hatch’s place on his committee plays a factor in his upcoming decision. He resides as the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, overseeing more than 50% of the federal budget.
This position has showed how important he is to the Republican Senate, helping to head up the “Tax Act and Jobs Cut” bill, whose purpose is to lower taxes on companies in an effort to make them more competitive and discourage them from going overseas. The bill faces one more hurdle before landing on Pres. Trump’s desk.
Why would he choose to retire?
Though Whitlock talked about the encouragement Hatch has received to run again, not all Utahns want to see Hatch stick around, at least according to a poll done by the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics in July 2017.
In that poll, 78 percent of voters said they want to see Hatch retire this term, and 57 percent said he should “definitely not” run for reelection. Those numbers, if true, won’t make for a cakewalk should he decide to pursue reelection.
Since the first time Sen. Hatch was elected, Hatch has not faced stiff competition. In 1982, he defeated Ted Wilson by 17 percentage points. In 1988, he defeated Brian Moss by 35. In 1994, he defeated Patrick Shea by 40 percentage points. In 2000, he defeated Scott Howell by 34. 2006, his win over Pete Ashdown was by 31. Finally, his win in 2012 over Scott Howell again came by 34 percentage points.
Several sources have compared Hatch’s situation to that of Sen. Bob Bennett. Bennett held a U.S. Senate seat in Utah for three terms beginning in 1992, until 2010 when he took third in the second round of balloting in the Utah Republican Convention.
Chuck Gates, communications correspondent for the Utah House of Representatives, said he believes the level of competition could play a factor in Hatch’s decision.
“I think he’s going to retire… this time around the challenge within the party will be much stiffer than the last go-around,” Gates said. “If he decides to run, he’s going to have to work… it’s a tough challenge.”
Gates continued, “I don’t think that he wants to step down, but I think he will simply because the challenge of continuing forward is just too great, to go out like Bob Bennett, as a loser… He wants his legacy.”
McKay Coppins, staff writer for The Atlantic and BYU alum, also made the comparison to Bob Bennett. “There a lot of pressure from the Republican Party… to get Orrin Hatch to retire. That’s not because they don’t like him…they are worried about his vulnerability to a primary challenge, what happened to Bob Bennett.”
State Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, shortly following election night on November 7, compared the recent John Curtis result (Curtis was elected to Utah’s 3rd congressional seat) to a potential Orrin Hatch 2018 result.
“I suspect that just as John Curtis didn’t do well in convention, Sen. Hatch may not fare that well among a certain faction of delegates,” Bramble said. “In the general Republican population, I would suspect that he does far better.”
Bramble said to predict the future of Hatch, there’s “too many moving parts,” but believes his position as the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, currently working on a tax reform bill (spoken of above), will play a part.
Also playing a part, according to Bramble, is SB54, or the “Count My Vote” bill, a bill in Utah that would eliminate the convention system for candidates who want a political party’s nomination. Candidates would, instead, gather signatures and voters would pick via a direct-party election.
“I believe that SB54 will be upheld by the 10th Circuit, as its been upheld by each of the courts, whether state or federal court,” Bramble said. “How that shapes our election cycle might affect whether Sen. Hatch chooses to run or not.”
Coppins said that his sources are telling him that Hatch will retire if he feels the conditions he has considered are being met.
“He wants to make sure there’s a way his legacy can be protected and preserved,” Coppins said. “There’s been a lot of talk about establishing some sort of Orrin Hatch Center at the University of Utah to memorialize his senate career.”
Coppins continued, “I also know he wants someone to take the baton from him that he respects.”
Likely Replacements
The most well-known candidate with the highest likelihood to replace Sen. Hatch would be Mitt Romney. On Oct. 27, Coppins published a piece about Hatch telling his friends of his plans to retire. A few days later, Rep. Mia Love, R-Utah, was reported as saying, in response to a question about Hatch running for Senate, “Hatch isn’t sticking around. We’re trying to get Mitt.”
Hatch’s team responded by once again saying Hatch “intends to run, but will make a final decision by the end of the year.”
The speculation has only picked up since then. In Nov. 2017, the Deseret News published several articles on lawmakers stating their support for Mitt Romney in the Senate.
“We should be electing the best of us, morally, politically, and professionally. Gov. Romney fits that bill,” Sen. Dan Hemmert, R-Orem, told the Deseret News. “We’d be lucky to have Mitt represent us as a Senator.”
The Washington Post published an article stating their support for Romney to push Hatch out if Hatch decides not to retire, though it’s “admirable” that Romney would be patient.
“Romney is one of the few marquee Republicans who has had the courage to call Trump out,” the author said. “If we’re going to save the party from the trash fire it has become, Republicans need to start having it out, and this is as good a place as any to start.”
Coppins believes that the Republican Party in the state of Utah would be very interested in Romney replacing Hatch.
“Mitt Romney had discussions with Mitch McConnell, and indicated that McConnell would waive some of the conventions about seniority for Mitt Romney,” Coppins said. “Even though technically Romney would be the junior senator from Utah, given his position and stature in the party… he would be default leadership in Congress.”
Coppins continued, “Utah would have a very powerful, very plugged-in and well-liked senator in Washington doing the voters bidding…overall, a huge win for the party.”
Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Arizona, is another public figure pulling for Romney to join the race. Flake has been in the news recently for announcing he would not seek re-election for the U.S. Senate in 2018, declaring on the Senate floor that he “will no longer be complicit or silent” in the face of the President’s “reckless, outrageous, and undignified behavior.”
“I’ve encouraged (Romney) to run. I’ve said he can make a tremendous impact in the Senate,” Flake said. “People respect him… His political skills and knowledge experience are certainly well-known, and he could make a tremendous difference.”
No confirmation has been made from Gov. Romney’s camp if he would decide to run, should Hatch retire, but he certainly would have a lot of support in the state of Utah.
Bramble also mentioned Derek Miller, president of the World Trade Centers, as a possible candidate, who has “expressed a keen interest.” Sen. Diedra Henderson also would throw her name in, according to Sen. Bramble.
Utah Valley University President Matt Holland’s name was thrown around as well, until he recently announced he would be leaving UVU to be a mission president for the LDS Church beginning summer of 2018.
Democratic Challengers
Jenny Wilson, daughter of former Salt Lake City mayor and one-time former Hatch challenger, Ted Wilson, appears to be in the lead for the Democratic nomination in a race for Hatch’s senate seat, garnering support from across the Salt Lake Valley. She is serving her second term on the Salt Lake City Council.
Wilson launched her campaign in July 2017, saying, “As a fifth-generation Utahn and elected official working in the state and on the ground, the back and forth between the Hatch’s, Romney’s and Huntsman’s regarding who is entitled to a seat in the U.S. Senate is offensive.”
She finished, “The Senate seat is not a family heirloom to be passed around from one elite family to another.”
Wilson is focusing on being “someone who listens to people throughout the state, who is involved in the community (on the ground), and who will stand up for struggling single mothers.” She is not the only democrat appearing to be in the race.
Back in April 2017, Mitchell Vice also announced in a press release that he would be creating an exploratory committee to potentially run for office. Vice grew up in Southern California but moved to Utah in 1993.
In his press release, Vice said, “I am committed to transforming politics into a conversation in which every citizen contributes powerfully and fearlessly.”
“It is important that all Utahns, regardless of race, religion, or political affiliation, have a seat at the table when it comes to discussing policies that will make them thrive both socially and economically,” Vice finished.
Potential candidates have until January 2018 to declare.
Sen. Hatch's Legacy
Should Sen. Hatch decide to retire, Whitlock said his legacy will be “changing the way people view civility in politics.”
“Sen. Hatch has shown the world that you can be a rock-ribbed conservative and still find opportunities to work with the other side,” Whitlock continued. “He has passed more conservative bipartisan legislation than anyone alive by building coalitions of support around ideas we all agree on, and helping the final product be as conservative as possible.”
Bramble mentioned that the people of Utah will remember him first and foremost, by his “longevity.”
“Those that know Sen. Hatch know that, from working with him, he’s been a very effective senator, by reaching across the aisle and finding common ground with those who have different political points of view,” Bramble said.
How do Utah Politics change without Hatch?
Coppins emphasized the point that Trump would probably prefer to have Hatch over any other candidate as Senator, who may be willing to speak out against the President and his policies. After all, Pres. Trump didn’t even win a majority of votes in Utah.
“You go from a Senator that’s pretty pro-Trump and friendly with the White House, to one who’s, if it were Mitt Romney, he’s someone who is way more critical of the President,” Coppins said.
There also are lobbyists, consultants, aides, etc. that have been working alongside Sen. Hatch for 40+ years who may have a difficult time adjusting and cozying up to the next Sen. This would have a large effect on the future of Utah politics as well, according to Coppins.
“Some of those (aides, consultants, lobbyists) would fall out of favor and not have as much influence in Utah,” Coppins said. “They would probably try to cozy up to Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), or whoever replaces Hatch.”
The Final Plan
No one knows exactly what decision Sen. Hatch will make, but we have an idea of what his team will say upon (another) request.
“He intends to run, but will make a decision by the end of the year.”
Until then, we wait.